The Israeli occupation entity’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confronts one of the most complex crises of his political career as disputes over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, negotiations over dissolving the Knesset, internal battles within Likud, and a growing constitutional confrontation over the appointment of attorney Michael Rabello as state comptroller converge into a single political storm.
US President Donald Trump has signaled that he may no longer guarantee his support for Netanyahu amid the unfolding domestic turmoil. Reports suggest Trump is considering alternative Israeli political figures, including Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot. Meanwhile, the dispute over the state comptroller has evolved from a procedural disagreement over a secret ballot into a broader test of power between the Knesset and the Israeli occupation’s Supreme Court.
Political analyst Amit Segal of Channel 12 reported that Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana rejected a Supreme Court proposal to hold a new vote on Rabello’s appointment, declaring, X: “The Knesset has spoken,” and ruling out another ballot.
According to a report by Anna Barsky and Gilad Morag in Maariv, the Supreme Court issued a conditional order requiring the Knesset to provide legal justification for refusing to invalidate Rabello’s election. A hearing has been scheduled for June 28.
The Haredi Trap
The Rabello dispute has quickly spilled beyond the courtroom, creating a direct coalition dilemma for Netanyahu. The possibility of a new vote has strengthened the leverage of the ultra-Orthodox parties, which coalition insiders say are unwilling to offer support without extracting political concessions in return.
A Yedioth Ahronoth report by Moran Azoulay cited Netanyahu associates as saying the Haredi factions “will not support him for free” but will demand compensation in exchange for backing the coalition.
The issue was further highlighted in another Yedioth Ahronoth report by Amir Ettinger covering a coalition leaders’ meeting on June 23 to discuss ultra-Orthodox demands.
According to Ettinger, both Likud and the “Religious Zionism party” oppose advancing key Haredi-backed legislation before elections, including the Daycare Law and the proposed Basic Law: Torah Study, fearing a public backlash. Netanyahu, however, is reportedly attempting to preserve the coalition bloc at any cost to enter an election campaign with a united front.
The report noted that a bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading on May 20 and its first reading on June 2, with expectations that the second and third readings could be completed before the Knesset’s summer session ends on July 17.
The daycare law has increasingly become a tool of electoral pressure. Moshe Gafni, leader of Degel HaTorah, insists on its passage, while Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs is discussing a temporary arrangement that would suspend arrests of yeshiva students who can demonstrate they are engaged in Torah study.
At the heart of the dispute is not a single law but a broader ultra-Orthodox effort to compensate for the failure to secure military exemption legislation by obtaining a package of sector-specific benefits before elections. As a result, some lawmakers in Likud and Religious Zionism reportedly believe dissolving the Knesset would be less politically costly than approving new privileges for the Haredi community amid wartime manpower shortages and a deepening military recruitment crisis.
Likud Revolt
Simultaneously, an internal crisis has erupted within Likud over party primaries.
In a June 21 report, Channel 12 revealed that David Bitan, acting chairman of Likud’s secretariat, filed an urgent petition with the party court to block efforts to cancel primary elections and replace them with an appointed organizing committee.
Bitan described the move as a “constitutional hijacking” aimed at changing the rules shortly before the scheduled primaries.
“You cannot change the rules of the game while it is being played,” he said. “I trust Likud members and their right to decide—not a selected committee.”
In an interview with Radio 103FM, cited by Maariv, Bitan warned that abolishing the primary system would drain the party of its vitality after the general election. He argued that parties lacking democratic structures have historically faded away. Asked whether Likud itself could eventually disappear without primaries, he replied: “Within eight years, I believe so.”
A Season of Defections
The crisis deepens further as organizational dissent gives way to political fragmentation.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Likud lawmaker Dan Illouz and Religious Zionism MK Moshe Solomon have held contacts with the Reservists Party led by Yoaz Hendel. The report suggested that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s decision to remove Solomon from Knesset committees was publicly linked to his vote against the Basic Law: Torah Study but was also connected to reports of his outreach to Hendel’s party.
Addressing party activists, Hendel said he hopes to recruit both Solomon and Illouz because they reject the notion that a right-wing alliance should entail support for military draft evasion.
He went even further, accusing the current coalition of having “sold its conscience to the devil” through its alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties that encourage mass avoidance of military service during wartime.
Trump’s Warning
The most damaging blow may have come from abroad.
On June 20, Maariv published a report citing international news agencies after Trump shared an article arguing that he holds significant influence over Netanyahu’s increasingly uncertain re-election prospects.
The report suggested that Trump’s support is now tied to the Israeli enemy’s adherence to the US-Iran agreement and broader regional stability objectives.
Channel 12 reinforced that interpretation, noting that the article shared by Trump explicitly mentioned alternative leadership candidates such as Bennett and Eisenkot. It also warned that Israeli actions perceived as undermining regional stability could prompt Trump to withdraw his backing for Netanyahu.
Within Likud, Bitan echoed those concerns, telling Radio 103FM that “Trump is harming Likud, and that is completely clear from his actions.”
“It is damaging—first to Israel, and then to Likud,” he added.
Trump, once viewed as one of Netanyahu’s most valuable political assets, is increasingly being seen as a source of uncertainty—even by figures within Netanyahu’s own party.
Eisenkot’s Rise
Trump’s signals have coincided with a surprising rise in support for former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
In a June 20 opinion piece in Maariv, attorney Sophie Ron-Moria described a recent Kan 11 poll as a “political earthquake.” The survey projected that a hypothetical party led by Eisenkot—one that does not yet formally exist—would win 21 seats, outperforming a rival list composed of former prime ministers and senior ministers.
A Prime Minister Surrounded by Crises
Netanyahu is no longer managing a single challenge but a web of simultaneous crises: a state comptroller dispute threatening a constitutional clash, ultra-Orthodox parties leveraging coalition survival for political gains, a rebellion within Likud over candidate selection, a growing right-wing search for an alternative political and moral leadership, and indications from Trump that Netanyahu’s continued rule is no longer an unquestioned American priority.
For that reason, October 20 no longer appears to be merely a potential election date. It is increasingly shaping up as a test of whether the Israeli enemy is entering a genuine post-Netanyahu era—or whether Netanyahu can once again transform political adversity into an electoral advantage.
The difference this time is that some of the most serious warnings are no longer coming from the courts, the opposition, or Washington but from within Likud itself.
Source: Agencies (translated and edited by Al-Manar)