US President Donald Trump’s approach to a potential confrontation with Iran is driven by layered strategic calculations, senior researchers at the Zionist entity’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) found on Wednesday.
In an article published in the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom on Wednesday, Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit said that Trump is trying to balance between pressure and restraint.
“Although Trump’s public remarks project an impatient ultimatum, a closer reading reveals a more complex reality: A president balancing the urge to project decisive leadership against a deep reluctance to enter another military conflict, amid skepticism from senior military leaders, pressure from his political base, and opposition from regional states,” the two Israeli researchers wrote.
They noted that those concerned in Iran are aware of Trump’s calculations, and they observe the gap between his hardline rhetoric and his fundamental reluctance to wage war.
“Therefore, the Iranians are brandishing the threat of a protracted war, heavy American casualties, and a continued adherence to the principle of their ‘right’ to enrichment, while expressing a willingness to be flexible in how this right is exercised.”
Furthermore, Shine and Shavit said that the changes made by the Iranian regime at the top of its political power structure, as well as the leak to the New York Times regarding the appointment of replacements for all senior military leaders, are intended to send a message to Trump that Iran is “prepared for every scenario, especially for a potential failure to overthrow the regime.”
“This Iranian policy reflects a decision to adhere to principles while being willing to make partial concessions, even if the price is a military confrontation with the massive US military buildup in the region,” the Israeli researchers wrote.
They argued that Trump’s attempts to downplay reports of reservations expressed by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, “fail to conceal the anxiety within the US military about the “maximum depletion” of480398 ammunition and interceptor missile stockpiles following extensive support for Israel and Ukraine, and the potential for a regional campaign that could last for months.”
“For Trump, who is averse to ‘endless wars’, this represents a significant burden that deepens his hesitation.”
Shine and Shavit noted meanwhile that Tel Aviv remains on high alert amid a sense of a “historic opportunity,” but also amid uncertainty about Trump’s resolve and “growing concern about the possibility of a bad interim agreement that leaves Iran with its nuclear infrastructure, particularly its ballistic missile project, in exchange for temporary calm.”
“Such a scenario, if it comes to pass, will leave Israel alone in the confrontation,” the researchers said.
“The US deterrence relies on the belief that the United States is willing and able to use its power. Therefore, it can be assumed that if the upcoming meeting fails, the likelihood of American military action against Iran will increase significantly. The troop deployment suggests a capability to launch broad and deep strikes against targets inside Iran,” they added.
The senior researchers at the Zionist entity’s INSS expected, meanwhile, that Trump, based on his remarks and the positions of his military leadership “may prefer to carry out a strong and short operation accompanied by political messages to Iran that would allow the confrontation to end.”
However, they noted that it remains unclear “what the US’ strategic objective is, or whether a viable exit plan exists that would allow Trump to claim tangible gains within a reasonable timeframe while minimizing the risk of broader regional escalation.”
Source: Hebrew media (translated and edited by Al-Manar)