Global tensions among the world’s major nuclear powers have intensified following the expiration this week of the New START treaty between Russia and the United States, which limited the two countries’ nuclear arsenals, fueling growing concerns that the world may be entering a new nuclear arms race.
As Washington seeks to bring China into any future arms-control framework, Moscow has countered by insisting that France and the United Kingdom be included in any multilateral negotiations on nuclear weapons.
With the two largest nuclear powers now freed from the constraints imposed by New START, experts warn of a renewed arms race, as each side pursues strategic gains without offering concessions.
China has rejected the idea of joining talks on a new nuclear arms-control agreement. A Western diplomat said Beijing prefers to remain “deliberately ambiguous” about the size of the gap separating it from the two leading nuclear powers.
China is estimated to possess around 600 nuclear warheads—far fewer than the roughly 1,700 currently deployed by the United States and Russia combined, and significantly below their total stockpiles. However, most observers agree that Beijing has accelerated its nuclear buildup. According to US estimates, China’s arsenal could reach 1,000 warheads by 2030 and possibly 1,500 by 2035.
Retired Admiral Charles A. Richard, former commander of US Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that official estimates of China’s nuclear capabilities should be raised well above current intelligence assessments. “Those numbers need to be doubled or tripled,” he said, to better reflect reality.
Ja Ian Chong, a political science expert at the National University of Singapore, warned that China’s opacity poses serious risks. He told AFP that limited transparency and secrecy increase the likelihood of miscalculation. Some analysts, he added, believe Beijing is concealing its true capabilities to protect its arsenal and gain a strategic advantage by preventing rivals from developing effective countermeasures. While China insists it maintains its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, Chong noted that there is no independent way to verify that claim.
Unlike the United States and Russia—who established a direct hotline following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis—China operates under a different strategic framework. Admiral Richard told U.S. senators that Washington and Moscow learned during the Cold War how to manage systems with immense destructive power responsibly, adding, “We don’t know whether China has learned those same lessons.”
Georgia Cole, a researcher at the London-based Chatham House, said China’s reluctance to join arms-control talks stems in part from its lag behind the two dominant nuclear powers. While US President Donald Trump has pushed for China’s inclusion in negotiations, she said this remains unlikely for now, as Beijing insists it will not enter formal arms-control talks until it reaches parity with Washington and Moscow.
Russia has responded to US pressure to include China by demanding the participation of Britain and France, the two European nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia’s ambassador to the UN office in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, said Friday that Moscow’s willingness to engage in nuclear talks depends on the inclusion of London and Paris, describing them as US military allies within NATO.
Britain and France together possess fewer than 500 nuclear warheads, but Russia wants them placed in the same category as the United States as Western powers, according to Éloise Fayet, a security expert at the French Institute of International Relations. She warned that such a move would turn the two countries into “bargaining chips” for the major powers—an approach France has long rejected.
In Washington, former New START chief U.S. negotiator Rose Gottemoeller told the Senate that China must be included in any future nuclear negotiations. She said she has recently sensed strong interest from Beijing in exploring ways to open dialogue with the United States on nuclear risks.
Even if China refuses to join formal arms-control talks, Gottemoeller argued, those risks must still be addressed. “Their arsenal is much smaller than ours,” she said, “but measures such as advance notification of missile launches and hotline arrangements are essential tools to begin a dialogue on nuclear risk reduction and to reduce the level of ambiguity surrounding modernization programs.”
“The first and most important goal,” she concluded, “is to talk to them and understand their intentions.”
Source: AFP (Edited by Al-Manar Website)