Secret assessments prepared by the US Central Intelligence Agency have warned that ‘Israel’ faces the risk of civil war or state collapse, driven by deepening political, economic, and social divisions following years of war involving Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
According to two US sources who briefed the American website Drop Site News on the report’s contents, experts from the CIA’s “Red Cell” unit prepared the assessment titled “Division from Within” in August, drawing on a combination of publicly available information and US intelligence.
Converging Pressures Ahead of October 27 Elections
Agency experts highlighted a volatile mix of pressures converging as the October 27 Israeli elections approach. These include an economic crisis and surging military spending; the return of heavily armed reservists from prolonged combat many suffering from severe psychological trauma; mounting anger over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from military service; escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank; and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to retain power, which have ignited a constitutional crisis.
A source within the intelligence community stated: “The authors of this report are experts on ‘Israel’. This is not a fanciful, hypothetical scenario; given the upcoming elections and internal divisions, we must take seriously their conclusion that Israel is just one spark away from a genuine internal conflict.”
The two sources warned that the combination of political division and a growing number of armed, traumatized former soldiers has historical precedents.
One of them said: “It is well known that the ‘Free Corps’ (Freikorps) in Germany consisted of veterans suffering from PTSD who were armed and bloodthirsty. I am not saying that post-Gaza Israel is post-World War I Germany, but there are certainly aspects that seem similar to me.”
The report noted that ‘Israel’s’ increasing transformation into a pariah state could be a factor leading to the state’s collapse.
Israeli-US Relations Threatened with Collapse
According to another CIA assessment reported on by Capital & Empire in July Israeli officials believe that the US political consensus underpinning the alliance with Israel is crumbling, and that continued reliance on billions of dollars in direct US military aid could eventually become politically unsustainable.
By the spring of this year, 60% of Americans viewed ‘Israel’ negatively up from 53% the previous year according to a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center.
The source stated: “The intelligence community like America, the military, and everywhere else is growing increasingly frustrated with the resources and political capital being spent to support Israel.”
“As we move forward with further integrating our military and industrial capabilities with theirs, there is deep frustration that we are doing so for a state that has dragged us into a losing war and a state that spies on us.”
Scenarios: From Political Division to Open Civil Conflict
The CIA report also attempted to outline scenarios regarding how these pressures might play out should Israel’s internal crisis deepen: how a single spark could transform political division into open civil conflict, and what the consequences might be.
Scenarios addressed in the report included the withdrawal of foreign technology and AI companies or the pulling of their investments and personnel further damaging an economy already under strain; regional governments reconsidering the political and strategic value of deepening ties and normalizing relations with Israel; and Hamas or Hezbollah exploiting this period of internal weakness.
According to sources, the report specifically employed the term “civil conflict.”
The assessment warned that beneath the image of military superiority and intelligence dominance, ‘Israel’ is accumulating economic, political, and social contradictions that military might alone may be unable to contain.
Source: Agencies and AL-Manar English Website