The Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation that is redrawing the region’s map of alliances and conflicts, as traditional rivalries give way to new calculations driven by security, economic interests, technology, and military power.
That is the assessment of prominent British historian and writer Simon Sebag Montefiore in an article published by The Wall Street Journal. He argues that what is unfolding is no longer a series of isolated crises but an increasingly interconnected set of geopolitical theaters that once appeared far removed from one another, stretching from Ukraine and the Caucasus to the Gulf, East Africa, and South Asia.
Montefiore points to a number of developments that illustrate the nature of this transformation. Some Arab states have maintained their relations with the Israeli occupation entity despite regional tensions, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have concluded a NATO-style mutual defense agreement.
Montefiore:
“The new alliances are no longer built primarily around sectarian or ideological affiliations. The old equation that reduced the region to a Sunni-Shia conflict or a confrontation between the West and Islam is giving way to more pragmatic calculations involving security, energy, trade, technology, and influence.”
New Foundations for Alliances
At the same time, Greece has signed a major defense agreement with the Israeli enemy, while Ukraine has strengthened its security ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The Israeli occupation, meanwhile, has become increasingly aligned with India, as ties expand among countries that once operated within more clearly defined blocs.
The writer contends that the new alliances are no longer primarily based on sectarian or ideological affiliations. The old equation that reduced the region to a Sunni-Shia conflict or a confrontation between the West and Islam is giving way to more pragmatic calculations involving security, energy, trade, technology, and influence.
He notes that “Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE represent an open, pro-Western model of Islam, confronting Iran and its allies, who represent a more radical and anti-Western model.”
Beyond the Old Middle East
However, the transformation extends beyond the traditional boundaries of the Middle East. Russia’s war in Ukraine has become intertwined with the confrontation involving Iran, “Israel,” the United States, and the Gulf states, while the war has reshaped the calculations of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia. In the eastern Mediterranean, Turkish-Greek disputes and gas discoveries have pushed Athens toward increasingly close strategic ties with the Zionist entity in response to Turkey’s regional ambitions.
South Asia has emerged as one of the most dangerous arenas of this interconnectedness. Pakistan, which has forged new ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, is seeking to expand its influence through mediation with Iran, while India is strengthening its partnership with the Israeli occupation.
while maintaining relations with Iran and Russia. If the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is revived, it could add an economic dimension to these shifting alliances.
In East Africa and the Red Sea, conflicts are becoming even more deeply intertwined. Sudan has become an arena of competition among regional powers seeking influence, ports, gold, and agricultural land, while the Israeli enemy, Arab states, Turkey, and Iran are competing for influence in Somalia, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa. The Red Sea crisis and Houthi attacks on Saudi interests have also raised fears that the conflict could spread further.
The Sahel and Libya’s Chaos
In the African Sahel, meanwhile, young military juntas are confronting “jihadist” groups in fragile states amid a contest for influence between France and Russia. Montefiore warns that the collapse of one of these states could allow “jihadist” groups to move south toward Nigeria or north to link up with the chaos in Libya, threatening the stability of Egypt and the wider region.
The term “Middle East” itself, the writer argues, may therefore become too narrow to describe the new reality, as political, economic, and security dynamics increasingly extend into Southern Europe, Central Asia, South Asia, and East Africa.
The Danger of a Sudden Spread of Conflict
Montefiore describes these alliances as flexible and overlapping, allowing the Mecca defense agreements to coexist with the Abraham Accords and new economic corridors linking India, the Gulf, and the Israeli occupation.
But this interconnectedness carries a major risk, the historian warns: the possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war could merge with the war between the United States and the Israeli occupation and Iran, and potentially with any conflict between India and Pakistan. He likens such a scenario to what fire scientists call “spotting,” in which flames leap from separate fires to create a massive blaze. If that were to happen, separate regional crises could escalate into a conflict with global dimensions.
America Alone
In this interconnected world, Montefiore argues that the United States remains the only power capable of managing this complex network, even though countries in the region do not fully trust Washington. Iranian attacks on Arab states have prompted many of them to hold on to the American presence for protection, while “Israel”—despite its disagreements with those states—has become strategically more important to them.
The writer concludes that the greatest danger no longer lies in a single conflict within the Middle East but in the possibility that multiple conflicts could merge into one conflagration. That makes the need for a more balanced and coherent American policy more urgent than ever.
Source: Al-Jazeera Net + Wall Street Journal (Edited and translated by Al-Manar Website)